Former presidential adviser Hakeem Baba-Ahmed has warned that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) risks significant internal upheaval — potentially including mass defections — if former Vice President Atiku Abubakar emerges as the party’s presidential candidate for the 2027 elections.
Baba-Ahmed, a former spokesperson for the Northern Elders Forum and ex-Special Adviser on Political Matters, shared this assessment during an interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme on Tuesday.
He asserted that Atiku holds a commanding position to secure the ADC’s presidential ticket should the party proceed to a national convention, a process Atiku reportedly favours. However, Baba-Ahmed predicted this outcome would lead to an exodus of dissatisfied aspirants and supporters.
“If ADC goes to convention, and it certainly will, because that’s what former Vice President Atiku wants, he will get the ticket,” Baba-Ahmed stated. “And then, a lot of people will walk out because a lot of people are in that party only for the same thing. They want the ticket.”
The commentator highlighted the fragile coalition dynamics within the ADC, noting that the party currently harbours multiple high-profile figures with overlapping presidential ambitions. These competing interests, he argued, are likely to collide once the candidate selection process intensifies.
Baba-Ahmed specifically addressed the position of former Labour Party presidential candidate and ex-Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, suggesting Obi’s approach to politics may not suit open, competitive primaries.
“One of the reasons Peter Obi is saying, ‘Look at me, I’m not here for number two, I’m not here for convention, I’m here to fly the flag,’ is that he has people who were initially whispering politely to him,” he explained. “But now they are saying, ‘Join the queue. You’re not the only one with ambition here.’”
He further remarked that Obi appears more comfortable with arrangements where he is adopted as a consensus or anointed candidate rather than battling through a crowded field.
“Peter Obi doesn’t do convention. He just goes there to be anointed,” Baba-Ahmed said.
Concluding his analysis, Baba-Ahmed forecasted that the ADC’s convention could prove destabilising for the broader opposition coalition.
“So, the ADC will bleed after its convention because almost certainly former Vice President Atiku will win the ticket, and when he does, some people will walk out,” he warned.
The ADC has emerged as a potential platform for opposition figures seeking to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027, but tensions over leadership and ticket allocation continue to dominate discussions within Nigeria’s evolving political landscape.
