73 percent of ice would disappear in the arctic sea this summer -Scientists

Arctic sea ice may vanish in summers this century, even if governments achieved the target of limiting global warming set by almost 200 nations in 2015, scientists said on Monday.

James Screen and Daniel Williamson of Exeter University in Britain, wrote in the journal — Nature Climate Change after a statistical review of ice projections that “Arctic sea ice has been shrinking steadily in recent decades.

“The shrinking has damaged the livelihoods of indigenous people and wildlife such as polar bears, while opening the region to more shipping and oil and gas exploration.

“Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments set a goal of limiting the rise in average world temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times.

“The 2 degrees Celsius target may be insufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic.”

A 2C rise would still mean a 39 percent risk that ice would disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summers, they said, noting that Ice was virtually certain to survive, however, with just 1.5C of warming.

They estimated a 73 percent probability that the ice would disappear in the summer unless governments made deeper cuts in emissions than their existing plans.

They estimated that temperatures would rise 3C (5.4F) on current trends.


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